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ACUS11 KWNS 160723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160723
NCZ000-SCZ000-160930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1462
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sun Sep 16 2018

Areas affected...Southeast NC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 378...

Valid 160723Z - 160930Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 378 continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for a few brief tornadoes will continue for
the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery shows a well-defined,
largely stationary rain band extending from FAY southeastward
through ILM and then south-southeastward offshore. Transient
rotation has been noted within the more persistent updrafts within
the band. Lightning has also been a more regular occurrence within
these cells in then past few nights, indicating a somewhat stronger
convective structure to this rain band versus last night. Given the
relative similarities between the thermodynamic environments of the
past few nights, one factor likely contributing to this more robust
convection is stronger surface convergence. This surface convergence
could contribute to stronger mesoscale forcing for ascent as well as
more potential for cell interactions/mergers.

That being said, the marginal thermodynamic environment continues to
temper what could be a more robust tornado threat. The most
supportive thermodynamic environment still remains across the
immediate coastal areas (i.e. Brunswick and New Hanover counties),
where slightly better low-level moisture contributes to more
buoyancy. As sampled by recent LTX VAD profiles, low-level wind
fields remain favorable for rotation within the strongest cells and
the threat for brief tornadoes continues across the watch area.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 09/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 35087973 35277942 35337831 35067772 34317712 33747718
33617855 34537950 35087973



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