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ACUS11 KWNS 022013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022013 COR
TXZ000-022215-
Mesoscale Discussion 0316
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018
Areas affected...portions of the Concho Valley/Edwards Plateau
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 022013Z - 022215Z
CORRECTED FOR TEXT IN GRAPHIC PRODUCT
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated storms developing near the dryline over western
portions of Texas may require WW issuance to cover evolving
hail/wind risk.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a dryline mixing eastward
into the Edwards Plateau/Concho Valley of Texas this afternoon, with
a moist/moderately unstable airmass (mixed-layer CAPE in excess of
2500 to 3000 J/kg) ahead of the dryline.
Isolated storms have begun to develop near the dryline, with the
strongest storm -- likely producing marginal hail -- now over
Terrell County. Coverage of storms should remain isolated
initially, but will likely increase gradually with time over the
next few hours. With 50-plus kt mid-level southwesterly flow
contributing to sufficient shear for organized/rotating storms,
degree of large hail/damaging wind risk may require WW issuance.
..Goss/Grams.. 05/02/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29750198 30250213 31820171 32330041 32199942 31269942
29789966 29200075 29760152 29750198
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