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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1458

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, September 15, 2018 19:26:19
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151926
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151926
    NCZ000-152030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1458
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0226 PM CDT Sat Sep 15 2018

    Areas affected...southeast North Carolina

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 376...

    Valid 151926Z - 152030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 376 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for a couple of short-lived circulations,
    embedded within the primary outer band, and an associated risk for a
    weak/brief tornado will likely focus near the Onslow Bay coast.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis places a moist axis, nearly
    co-located with the primary spiral band, from the Gulf Stream
    northwestward and arcing into the middle of Onslow Bay. It is
    within this convective band where the only notable transient
    circulations have developed during the past several hours. With
    essentially no movement of Florence's center during the past few
    hours and little expected movement during the next several hours,
    the non-zero risk for a brief/weak tornado will likely remain
    confined to near the coast in the Onslow Bay vicinity through the
    remaining portion of the afternoon. Because tornado watch 376 will
    expire by 4pm EDT, a reevaluation of whether to issue another
    tornado watch (likely near the immediate coast) will need to occur
    during the next 60-90 minutes.

    ..Smith/Kerr.. 09/15/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

    LAT...LON 34137758 34577802 34827778 34397721 34137758



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