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ACUS11 KWNS 021947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021947
KSZ000-022145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0315
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 61...

Valid 021947Z - 022145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues.

SUMMARY...Latest guidance shows increasing concern for severe,
damaging wind this afternoon and evening across portions of central
Kansas ahead of an intensifying cluster of thunderstorms across
southwest Kansas. These thunderstorms will move quickly to the
northeast.

DISCUSSION...Latest observations suggest mesoscale organization of
the thunderstorm activity, with attendant rear-inflow jet
development, across southwest Kansas. This larger-scale organization
will support thunderstorm longevity as they move into an environment characterized by 2500-3000 J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE and low-level
lapse rates around 8 C/km. This environment and the approaching
convective complex will support downward momentum transfer of strong lower-tropospheric flow resulting in an heightened potential for
significant severe thunderstorm wind swaths at the surface,
potentially in excess of 70-80 mph. As such, an increase in
significant wind potential is expected over the next few hours.

..Marsh.. 05/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON 37889940 38299885 38629810 38649753 38459746 38149781
37829856 37569915 37469934 37669943 37889940



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ACUS11 KWNS 130951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130950
TXZ000-131045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0315
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Areas affected...portions of west-central Texas southward toward the
Rio Grande

Concerning...Tornado Watch 49...

Valid 130950Z - 131045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 49.

DISCUSSION...Convection has generally struggled to deepen across the
WW area this morning, although one cell recently crossed the Rio
Grande near DFX. This storm is surviving despite weak inhibition,
and has a threat of all modes of severe as long as it can persist.

Uncertainty persists with regard to the extent of convection across
the region. However, it appears that severe convection will remain
possible through the entirety of the valid WW period as the region
remains under the grazing influence of ascent from a mid-level wave
over New Mexico/northern Mexico. It is also possible that
convection moving eastward from Terrell County may interact
favorably with the warm frontal zone near that region and pose a
severe threat as well. PFCs/profiles remain supportive of organized
convection favoring all modes of severe - thus the severe threat
across WW 49 continues.

..Cook.. 04/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 30960166 31170143 31200048 31139957 30959893 30489859
29739855 28949864 28699872 28639925 28590025 28820089
29290127 29630168 29920185 30490185 30960166



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