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ACUS11 KWNS 150047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150046
MNZ000-NDZ000-150245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1453
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Areas affected...Southeastern North Dakota...portions of
central/northern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 150046Z - 150245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few elevated supercells capable of severe hail are
possible this evening. Convective coverage is anticipated to
increase with time, particularly in central/northern Minnesota.
Limited spatial extent of threat precludes WW issuance, though
trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Sufficient mid-level ascent has led to development of a
couple supercell storms in southeastern North Dakota and central
Minnesota along/near a surface boundary. 00Z BIS sounding indicates
elevated instability of 300-400 J/kg with, mid-level lapse rates of
around 7.5 C/km, and a long hodograph supportive of severe hail.
Farther east, the central/northern Minnesota activity may be near
surface based, but will transition to elevated as the boundary layer
cools. The 00Z INL sounding similarly has mid-level lapse rates of
around 7 C/km with a long hodograph. Given the 00Z observed
soundings, 35-40 kts of effective bulk shear is likely. With time,
the low-level jet is expected to increase with confidence highest in central/northern Minnesota and less confidence with westward extent.
The overall spatial extent of the hail threat will likely remain
small. As coverage increases, convective mode will become less
favorable for hail. A WW is not anticipated, though trends will be
monitored.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 09/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 47019986 47619590 47279269 46799264 46309396 46209605
46259926 46479981 46690000 47019986



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