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ACUS11 KWNS 150001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150001
NCZ000-150200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1452
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0701 PM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Areas affected...Portions of eastern/central North Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 374...

Valid 150001Z - 150200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 374 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for a weak tornado or two remains in southern
portions of WW 374.

DISCUSSION...The general trend in radar imagery from KMHX over the
past hour or two has been weak, transient supercell structures
within an outer rainband of Tropical Storm Florence moving onshore
near Morehead City, NC. The strongest circulations, however, have
remained offshore. This outer band has slowly shifted to the
southwest with time, consistent with the NHC forecast track. While
the system and associated surface wind fields are expected to weaken
slowly this evening, strong low-level shear -- around 30 kts per
KMHX VAD -- and parcel trajectories favoring moisture influx into
the region supports at least some threat for a weak tornado or two.
Northern portions of WW 374 likely have experienced the peak in
activity already. Surface flow in that area will continue to become
less favorable as the system moves slowly west/southwest.

..Wendt.. 09/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 34207723 34567826 34837890 34957902 35047908 35137911
35187909 36207801 36157768 35757551 35137520 35047525
34977530 34277641 34257651 34207723 34207723



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