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ACUS11 KWNS 142309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142309
NCZ000-VAZ000-150115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Areas affected...Far northern NC and southern VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 142309Z - 150115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal risk exists for a brief tornado to possibly
occur yet this evening (through 8-9 PM EDT) across far northern
North Carolina and in portions of southern Virginia, as individual
showers and occasional thunderstorms move to the west or
west-southwest.

DISCUSSION...Trends in individual radar imagery across northern NC
and southern VA had indicated periodic low-level rotational couplets
tracking to the west and west-southwest at 25-30 kt. Cellular
convection across the discussion area is located on the northern
periphery of Florence, where the environment remains very moist with
surface dew points in the lower 70s F inland and in the middle-upper
70s in southeast VA and northeast NC. Modifying the AKQ VAD with
surface wind and a storm motion of cells in southern VA indicated
relatively weak 0-1 km SRH of less than 100 m2/s2 (with an
individual value near 75 m2/s2). Meanwhile, the 21Z/22Z runs of the
NSSL Experimental Warn-on-forecast System for Ensembles (NEWS-e)
suggested the potential for low-level vertical vorticity should
persist through around 15/00Z and reflectivity structures should
weaken after 00Z. Although the air mass remains moist with low
LCLs, an unfavorable shear environment (as indicated by the VAD) and
the NEWS-e forecast guidance, indicating a short duration for any
additional rotational couplets, precludes the issuance of a tornado
watch.

..Peters/Guyer.. 09/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 35967896 35947982 36587964 37097912 37097828 36937741
36797699 36437695 36267735 36237795 36017855 35967896



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