• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1450

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, September 14, 2018 19:43:13
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    ACUS11 KWNS 141943
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141942
    NCZ000-142145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1450
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0242 PM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018

    Areas affected...eastern North Carolina

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 373...

    Valid 141942Z - 142145Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 373 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes will persist through this
    evening over a portion of eastern North Carolina. A new tornado
    watch will need to be issued for this region prior to WW 373
    expiration of time of 21Z.

    DISCUSSION...As of mid afternoon the center of Florence remains over
    extreme southeast coastal NC near the NC/SC border and is drifting
    very slowly west and southwest. This motion is forecast by the
    National Hurricane Center to persist into tonight (see the latest
    advisories from the NHC for further information). Much of eastern NC
    will remain within the favorable northeast quadrant for a threat of
    isolated tornadoes through this evening, but the primary threat zone
    may gradually shift a little farther south with time. No cloud
    breaks between the outer convective bands have materialized inland,
    and tendency has been for the primary bands to consolidate, along
    with a trend for less discrete convective elements. This has
    resulted in a temporary decrease in observed supercells during the
    past couple of hours. Nevertheless, given the very favorable wind
    profiles in place with large 0-1 km hodographs northeast of the
    center, along with persistent moist, onshore flow, the threat will
    remain for embedded supercells to develop offshore over the Gulf
    Stream and move inland. This will necessitate the issuance of a
    replacement tornado watch prior to 21Z that will remain valid
    through much of the evening.

    ..Dial.. 09/14/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

    LAT...LON 34147741 34717810 35247864 35987790 35757625 34947576
    34337660 34147741



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