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ACUS11 KWNS 021834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021833
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-022030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0314
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018

Areas affected...parts of the eastern Iowa vicinity eastward across
northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 021833Z - 022030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the southeast
Iowa area in the next 1-2 hours, and organize/spread eastward with
time. Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed, as hail/wind
risk increases.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a surface boundary lying
across west-southwest to east-northeast across southern and eastern
Iowa and stretching into southern Wisconsin. Ahead of the front,
dewpoints are generally in the low 60s, with gradual heating ongoing
through broken cloud cover.

Isolated storms are expected to develop over the southeast Iowa
vicinity by 20z, as mixed-layer CAPE increases to 1000 to 1500 J/kg
across the area. Gradual upscale development is expected, with a
cluster or two of fast-moving storms -- aided by west-southwesterly
mid-level flow in the 40 to 60 kt range. Along with risk for large
hail, locally damaging wind potential -- modulated by degree of
linear evolution -- will also be possible.

..Goss/Grams.. 05/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON 40179121 40449188 40759226 41429228 42329081 42548957
42318884 41778847 40698824 40198852 40179121



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ACUS11 KWNS 130936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130935
TXZ000-131030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0314
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Areas affected...west-central into north-central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48...

Valid 130935Z - 131030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 48 downstream of a
complex of storms between San Angelo and Midland, TX. Additional
elevated convection may also pose a hail threat this morning.

DISCUSSION...The severe threat continues across WW 48. Convection
has congealed into a mix of linear and cellular modes in west Texas,
with one lone supercell continuing to exhibit occasionally strong
velocity signatures and indications of 1-2" diameter hail potential
in Irion County. There storms are slightly elevated and just north
of the warm frontal zone, which is probably mitigating any tornado
threat. Downstream of this activity, convection continues to deepen
within a steep-lapse-rate environment, with effective shear
supporting organization and updraft rotation. These storms could
also produce occasional 1" hailstones at times as they mature.

Over time, high-resolution guidance suggests that the current linear
complex and cells out ahead will continue to migrate east-northeast,
with hail being the primary severe risk. A new WW may be needed
downstream of the current one pending 1) severity of the ongoing MCS
and cells out ahead and 2) northward progress of the warm front on
the southern periphery of the watch, which may increase the tornado/damaging-wind threat with storms that can become surface
based. A new MD will probably be issued to update on downstream
watch potential later this morning.

..Cook.. 04/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 32470178 32790111 32909988 32939819 32709757 32209742
31799757 31299856 31079978 31010088 31080142 31630172
31910199 32270214 32380204 32470178



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