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ACUS11 KWNS 141003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141002
NCZ000-141130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 AM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Areas affected...Eastern NC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 372...

Valid 141002Z - 141130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 372 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat will persist for the next several hours
across eastern NC. Some increase in the tornado potential may occur
later this morning and an additional Tornado Watch is being
considered.

DISCUSSION...Hurricane Florence continues to slowly track westward
towards the southern NC coast. The center of the system is currently
about 20 miles east of ILM with rain bands extending about 100 miles
outward from the center along its northern, eastern, and southern
periphery. Radar imagery reveals that the convective intensity
within these rain bands has been relatively minimal. The absence of
any lightning also confirms the lack of somewhat stronger updrafts.
This is likely a result of displacement between the better
instability (across northeast NC) and the rain bands (across central
and southeast NC). Even so, sporadic bursts of enhanced convective
intensity have resulted in a few briefly rotating storms. This
general trend is expected to persist for at least the next several
hours.

An increase in the tornado potential is expected later this morning
as low-level wind fields remain strong and the possibility for
greater instability increases with diurnal heating. This is
especially true within any cloud breaks that may develop. As such,
the persisting tornado threat will likely merit the need for an
additional Tornado Watch once Tornado Watch 372 expires at 11Z.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 09/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 34187825 34757823 35667751 36107638 35757498 34327595
33947734 34187825



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