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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1446

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, September 14, 2018 00:25:41
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    ACUS11 KWNS 140025
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140025
    NCZ000-140230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1446
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0725 PM CDT Thu Sep 13 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern NC

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 371...

    Valid 140025Z - 140230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 371 continues.

    SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two remains a threat across eastern
    North Carolina, mainly from the Outer Banks to the immediate coastal
    areas from this evening through tonight. A new Tornado Watch is
    being considered, and will be coordinated with affected NWS Forecast
    Offices shortly.

    DISCUSSION...Trends during the last couple of hours in mosaic radar
    imagery attendant to Hurricane Florence indicated the northern
    extent of a tornado threat has been around KHSE, as any bands north
    of that area have been less organized. Given the low-CAPE/high
    shear environment with the hurricane (sfc-1 km SRH of 400-750 m2/s2
    per objective analysis), a tornado threat is maintained as Florence
    advances toward the coast. The spatial coverage of this tornado
    watch is expected to be smaller than the one issued during the day
    time. This is due to 1) the aforementioned reason on the northern
    extent, 2) nocturnal cooling inland, limiting destabilization away
    from the higher-moisture-content air closer to the coast (surface
    dew points in the mid-upper 70s), and 3) similar westward trajectory
    of the tropical system, limiting additional counties added to the
    south, at this time.

    ..Peters/Guyer.. 09/14/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

    LAT...LON 33797730 34337789 34847773 35467694 35617642 35397558
    35157523 34777540 34267632 33967694 33797730



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