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ACUS11 KWNS 131929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131929
NCZ000-VAZ000-132130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1445
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Sep 13 2018

Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern North
Carolina...adjacent southeast Virginia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 371...

Valid 131929Z - 132130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 371 continues.

SUMMARY...There may be at least some increasing risk for a couple of
tornadoes late this afternoon, mainly across the Outer Banks and
immediate coastal areas.

DISCUSSION...Showers have increased in coverage, with perhaps a few
weak thunderstorms, across coastal southeast Virginia into the
portions of the piedmont of North Carolina. This is generally
northwest through north of Hurricane Florence, but in the presence
of sizable and gradually enlarging low-level hodographs associated
with its approach. Although low-level shear may already be
potentially supportive of some risk tornadoes, evaporative cooling
and downward mixing of relatively warm and dry air above the
boundary layer appears to be contributing to the maintenance of an
unfavorable low-level thermodynamic stratification.

Into early evening, any appreciable risk for tornadoes may be
confined to the next vigorous convective band pivoting from the
northeastern through northern outer periphery of Florence. This may
impact much of the Outer Banks/immediate coastal areas, where dew
points are in the upper 70s in the presence of strong to extreme
low-level shear, through 00Z time frame.

..Kerr.. 09/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 36787786 37157676 36547468 35417398 34327438 34737545
34007744 34207815 35077904 35787881 36787786



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