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ACUS11 KWNS 130747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130746
NCZ000-131015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 AM CDT Thu Sep 13 2018

Areas affected...Coastal North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 130746Z - 131015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The approach of Hurricane Florence will bring an
increasing tornado threat across coastal North Carolina this
morning. A Tornado Watch will be collaborated with impacted offices,
with issuance expected around 7am EDT.

DISCUSSION...Hurricane Florence is making steady northwest progress
early this morning, and its approximate northwestern half is now
appearing on KMHX (Morehead City, NC) radar data. Along the fringe
of the main precipitation shield, more cellular activity is
apparent, with Z/ZDR suggesting relatively stronger low-level
convective elements in these cells (via modest drop size sorting
signatures). Through early/mid morning, this favorable convective
corridor should evolve onshore where surface theta-e is highest
given Florence's outer circulation and related advection. Generally,
this corridor will be centered on coastal areas in the Morehead City
CWA. As wind fields continue to strengthen here over the next
several hours, amplifying low-level shear will combine with the
aforementioned convective maximum to increase the threat of a couple
of tornadoes.

Greater uncertainty with regard to the tornado potential exists to
the west/northwest (RAH/ILM CWAs) and north (AKQ CWA). For RAH/ILM,
greater offshore component of flow will maintain less favorable
theta-e initially, limiting the tornado threat. However, southward
advection of a diurnally heated boundary layer may boost the threat
towards afternoon. For AKQ, onshore components are yielding greater
low-level buoyancy, but a weaker wind field and lower convective
potential cast some doubt on how far north the tornado threat will
extend. Regardless, a Tornado Watch will eventually be collaborated
with local offices, and issuance is expected around 7am EDT.

..Picca/Thompson.. 09/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 34447638 33887745 33667813 33767844 34217865 34897861
35437816 35927753 36047682 36167610 36107545 35467517
34767573 34447638



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