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ACUS11 KWNS 130221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130221
NDZ000-130445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1443
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0921 PM CDT Wed Sep 12 2018

Areas affected...Much of central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 130221Z - 130445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A flourish of elevated storms is expected after 04Z, with
a few storms producing large hail. However, the severe threat is
expected to be relatively brief.

DISCUSSION...A surface warm front currently extends from northwest
SD across southern and eastern ND, with VWPs indicating strong warm
air advection in the low-levels. Currently, the air mass remains
capped, except for near the 850 mb warm front which extends from
northern ND into Canada.

Over the next few hours, a cold front is forecast to develop into
the western Dakotas which will help to focus lift. Lapse rates aloft
are quite steep, and will favor fast development of scattered
elevated storms mainly after 04Z. Large hail will be possible with a
few of the storms, especially early in the event before storms
possibly interfere with each other. Increasing mid to upper level
winds/long hodographs will also favor hail in some of the cells. The
threat should remain relatively confined to the central ND region
along the front, and may spread northeast toward southern MB. Given
strong capping east of the developing cold front, the zone of hail
potential is expected to be narrow, with little eastward
progression. Given the small area and expected brief nature of the
threat, a watch is unlikely.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 46880104 46650136 46370201 46310256 46430301 47250310
48270213 48790092 49090011 49039916 48889882 48399878
47659987 47020082 46880104



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