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ACUS11 KWNS 112209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112209
MNZ000-NDZ000-120045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1442
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CDT Tue Sep 11 2018

Areas affected...Northeast North Dakota into northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 112209Z - 120045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may produce large hail or marginally severe
wind gusts this evening from northeast North Dakota into northwest
Minnesota.

DISCUSSION...A cold front will progress slowly eastward beneath a
low-amplitude shortwave trough aloft. Temperatures aloft are not
cooling much, but sufficient heating has resulted in MLCAPE in
excess of 2000 J/kg, although there is a capping inversion around
700 mb. However, a continued deepening of the moist boundary layer
near the front should lift the cap, resulting in a narrow zone of
thunderstorms by 23-00Z. Lift will also be augmented by a
strengthening low-level jet up to 50 kt. Isolated severe hail will
be possible given favorable lapse rates aloft, but these cells
should remain rather disorganized south of the Canadian border. A
few strong wind gusts will be possible as well.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/11/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...

LAT...LON 47559639 47519698 47679735 48119752 48689742 49069711
49489617 49549527 49549500 49349468 48959457 48399470
47889506 47709541 47559639



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