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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1440

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, September 09, 2018 22:24:21
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 092224
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092223
    NDZ000-SDZ000-100030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1440
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0523 PM CDT Sun Sep 09 2018

    Areas affected...North-central South Dakota into eastern North
    Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 092223Z - 100030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to develop between 00-03Z over
    eastern North Dakota into north-central South Dakota, with large
    hail the primary threat. A few damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled
    out.

    DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows CU increasing near the surface
    trough from Carrington, ND to Mobridge, SD, near the instability
    axis. Heating beneath steep lapse rates aloft have combined with low
    60s F dewpoints to produce MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg (removing the
    bad dewpoint observations over ND), which will support vigorous
    updrafts as storms initiate. Wind profiles are relatively weak,
    though veering with height, suggesting mixed storm mode. The
    greatest risk for a few severe storms will be where it has heated
    into the mid 80s F, from southeast ND extending into SD. Here,
    southerly 850 mb flow increasing to 25 kt and may support an
    isolated, right-moving cell or two capable of hail to around golf
    ball size.

    ..Jewell/Edwards.. 09/09/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 44359908 44329952 44500001 44790050 45220087 45620103
    46500053 47150012 47789972 48219945 48889902 48969830
    48949766 48519727 47939712 47239741 45829812 45119835
    44729863 44359908



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