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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1439

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, September 09, 2018 20:46:51
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 092046
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092046
    OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-092315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1439
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0346 PM CDT Sun Sep 09 2018

    Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...Western Texas
    Panhandle...Far Western Oklahoma Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 092046Z - 092315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat will likely continue this
    afternoon and may persist into early this evening. Hail and strong
    wind gusts will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance is
    not expected.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar shows thunderstorm development taking
    place in the high plains of northeast New Mexico. The storm in
    northeast New Mexico is located just behind a surface trough on the northwestern edge of a somewhat moist airmass. Surface dewpoints
    along the surface trough are generally in the mid 50s F and the RAP
    is suggesting that MLCAPE has reached the 1000 to 1500 J/Kg range.
    RAP forecast soundings in northeast New Mexico this afternoon have
    0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 kt range suggesting enough vertical
    shear exists for a marginal severe threat. Near dry adiabatic lapse
    rates below 700 mb may help enhance downdrafts enough to produce
    marginally severe wind gusts. Hail will also likely accompany the
    stronger storms.

    ..Broyles/Grams.. 09/09/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 36590434 35910445 35690481 35280512 34560524 34150515
    34100465 34400410 34770343 34960246 35280225 35820231
    36580224 37010299 36930395 36590434



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