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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1438

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, September 09, 2018 17:34:52
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 091734
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091734
    WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-091900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1438
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1234 PM CDT Sun Sep 09 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky...southwest West Virginia...far
    southern Ohio...far northern Tennessee...and far western Virginia.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 091734Z - 091900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Occasional strong to severe storms are possible this
    afternoon in the southern Ohio Valley into the west slopes of the
    Appalachians.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have started to form just ahead of the surface
    low in east central Kentucky. The airmass ahead of these storms has
    started to destabilize with MLCAPE around 500 to 1000 J/kg. Deep
    layer shear is around 25 to 30 knots across the area. Given the
    marginal environment from both a shear and buoyancy perspective,
    expect storms to remain mostly sub-severe with only occasional
    damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. Therefore, a severe
    thunderstorm watch is not expected.

    Winds are backed in northeastern Kentucky and far southwestern West
    Virginia, but an unfavorable storm mode and 0-1 km SRH around 75
    m2/s2 via the RLX VWP suggest the tornado threat remains
    marginal/isolated.

    ..Bentley/Grams.. 09/09/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...

    LAT...LON 38008351 38448295 38718242 38848195 38668153 38288131
    37818110 37498121 36918179 36608242 36368292 36268364
    36428409 36708438 37258440 37538417 38008351



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