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ACUS11 KWNS 091715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091714
VAZ000-MDZ000-091915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1437
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Sun Sep 09 2018

Areas affected...The southern Chesapeake Bay Region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 091714Z - 091915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...There is an isolated tornado/waterspout threat in the
southern Chesapeake Bay area through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Several showers/storms have formed in the southern
Chesapeake Bay region where the airmass has destabilized. Low-level
easterly flow in this area has led to elongated hodographs and
locally enhanced helicity which has caused several of these
showers/storms to rotate. MLCAPE has increased to around 1000 J/kg
across this region and may increase to around 1500 J/kg by later
this afternoon. Where low-level easterlies persist, effective shear
is around 30 knots which will help support continued organization of
storms in this region. These rotating, low-topped storms in an
environment characterized by low LCLs will support an isolated
tornado threat. Given the isolated/transient nature of circulations
up to this point, a tornado watch is not anticipated at this time,
but trends will continue to be monitored.

..Bentley/Grams.. 09/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...

LAT...LON 36977663 37437656 37787640 37977612 37927567 37697555
37297569 36847584 36597592 36607626 36827664 36977663



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