This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1536444474-46358-5388
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 082207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082207
SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-090030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1436
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Sat Sep 08 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming...Western South Dakota...and
Western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 082207Z - 090030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A broken line of storms have developed along a surface
pressure trough over the central/northern High Plains. Hail and
damaging winds are possible, but the overall severe risk should
remain isolated.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough moving over the
Northern Rockies has lowered heights aloft and spread ascent over
the northern High Plains. A surface pressure trough currently
extends north-south through far eastern Montana/Wyoming, which has
focused convective initiation over the last hour or so in far
eastern Wyoming. Buoyancy and shear is marginal over the area
(400-600 J/kg of MLCAPE; effective bulk shear 20-30 knots) per
mesoanalysis and RAP forecast soundings. However, relatively steep
low-level lapse rates (8.5-9 C/km) and DCAPE of 1200+ J/kg indicate
the potential for strong/damaging winds within a relative narrow
corridor across far eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, and
western Nebraska during the evening. Hail, including severe hail, is
also possible given the low freezing levels and sufficient
CAPE/shear. The overall severe environment is marginal and
widespread intensification/organization is doubtful. Therefore, a
watch issuance is unlikely.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 09/08/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON 41370355 41330398 41660459 42030475 42650476 43490482
44450476 45180441 45340426 45430387 45360329 44890282
43980280 42790311 41590342 41370355



------------=_1536444474-46358-5388
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1536444474-46358-5388--

--- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)