This is a multi-part message in MIME format...
------------=_1555135043-1972-9329
Content-Type: text/plain
ACUS11 KWNS 130557
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130556
TXZ000-130800-
Mesoscale Discussion 0312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019
Areas affected...portions of west Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 130556Z - 130800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Convection across western and southern portions of the
discussion area should continue to strengthen, with potential for
all modes of severe. A Tornado Watch is being considered for the
area.
DISCUSSION...Convection continues to deepen across eastern
Pecos/Terrell counties and just south of the Rio Grande near Del
Rio. These storms were already demonstrating supercellular
characteristics, and these trends should continue given strongly
vertically veering wind profiles, strong low-level shear (30-40
kts), and moderate surface-based instability (mid-50s to low 60s F
dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates and cooling aloft).
Point forecast soundings indicate that any remaining cap across western/southern portions of the discussion has been mostly removed,
and with continued low-level upslope against higher terrain in
northern Mexico and lift associated with the approaching mid-level
trough in New Mexico, convection should continue to expand over time
and possibly necessitate a tornado watch across portions of the
discussion area. If issued, this watch will extend north of the
current position of the warm front (subjectively analyzed from near
6R6 to near JCT), with the expectation that this front should slowly
migrate northward over time.
Mid-level capping is a bit more pronounced in point forecast
soundings in the eastern half of the discussion area (nearer San
Antonio). A couple of factors suggest presence of a severe threat
in these areas beyond the next 1-2 hours or so, including: 1)
continued cooling aloft with approach of a mid-level wave over New
Mexico and 2) convective organization, which may overcome the cap
especially in instances of strong updraft rotation and/or upscale
convective growth. A few of the operational CAMS indicate this
potential as well. This region will also be monitored for a
potential watch.
..Cook/Edwards.. 04/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30380265 30740251 31060194 31080116 30859985 30359907
29699887 29229916 29059951 28940003 28930081 29160148
29450213 29870253 30070263 30380265
------------=_1555135043-1972-9329
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at
cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1555135043-1972-9329--
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)