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ACUS11 KWNS 020206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020206
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-020300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0906 PM CDT Tue May 01 2018

Areas affected...Northern Kansas...Far Southeast
Nebraska...Northwest Missouri and Southwest Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 59...

Valid 020206Z - 020300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 59 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue across parts of
north-central and northeast Kansas over the next couple of hours.
Large hail and wind damage will be possible and a few tornadoes may
also occur in northeast Kansas. Tornado watch 59 will expire at 03Z.
Either a new weather watch or a local extension in area and time may
be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a cluster of severe
storms across north-central and northeast Kansas. This cluster is
located on the northern edge of moderate instability where MLCAPE
values are estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This
combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear evident on
regional WSR-88D VWPs and steep mid-level lapse rates will continue
to support supercells with large hail over the next couple of hours.
Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and bowing line
segments. A few tornadoes may also occur mainly across northeast
Kansas where low-level shear will continue to be favorable late this
evening. Due to an expected severe threat past 03Z, a new weather
watch or local extension will likely be needed.

Further south across south-central Kansas, a capping inversion has
become re-established which is evident on the 00Z Lamont, OK
sounding. This has ended the severe threat there.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 05/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 39839726 40019654 39959550 39819502 39379484 38939524
37769631 37309711 37269786 37569850 38599904 38959901
39449846 39839726



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ACUS11 KWNS 130440
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130440
TXZ000-130645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019

Areas affected...Southwest TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 130440Z - 130645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across
southwest TX over the next few hours. Some severe hail is possible
with these storms.

DISCUSSION...Strong moisture advection throughout the evening has
significantly modified the low-level air mass across the region.
Dewpoints across the area have increased 10 to 15 degrees over the
last 3 hours with much of the region now characterized by dewpoints
in the upper 40s and low 50s. At the same time, ascent attendant to
the shortwave trough moving through northern Mexico continues to
increase, resulting in both an increase in high-level cloudiness
over the region and a deepening of the surface low centered near
FST. Continued moisture advection amidst this ascent, surface
convergence, and increasing instability is expected to result in
eventual convective initiation.

Current expectation is for most of these storms to be elevated north
of the warm front, although surface-based development cannot be
entirely ruled out later tonight across portions of the Edwards
Plateau. Vertical shear supports updraft rotation, with hail
possible within the more persistent and robust updrafts.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 04/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 30030114 30120241 30740291 32260265 32740178 32420028
30630031 30030114



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