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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1433

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, September 06, 2018 23:07:40
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 062307
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062306
    NDZ000-070100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1433
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0606 PM CDT Thu Sep 06 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of western/central ND

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 062306Z - 070100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A very isolated hail threat may develop over the next
    couple of hours. Watch issuance is not expected at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows towering cumulus
    along a surface trough across western ND. At least isolated
    thunderstorms will probably develop over the next hour or so along
    this trough, and perhaps along a warm front oriented east to west
    across central ND. Although the warm sector will remain spatially
    confined to a small portion of western/central ND this evening, a
    relatively moist low-level airmass coupled with modestly steep
    mid-level lapse rates are supporting around 1500-2000 J/kg of
    MLCAPE. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain north of the international border, but a southerly low-level jet strengthening to
    around 25-30 kt this evening may provide sufficient lift to support thunderstorm maintenance through 02-03Z before convective inhibition
    greatly increases. Enough veering should be present in the low to
    mid levels to result in around 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear, and
    some updraft rotation/organization may occur. Very isolated
    instances of large hail would be the primary risk with the strongest
    cells. The overall severe threat will very likely remain too
    isolated to warrant watch issuance.

    ..Gleason/Kerr.. 09/06/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...

    LAT...LON 46660058 46420113 46370196 46390276 46960256 47490207
    47780161 47880113 47860064 47720025 47390007 47000017
    46660058



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