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ACUS11 KWNS 020056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020055
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-020230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Tue May 01 2018

Areas affected...central IA into southeast MN and far southwest WI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 60...

Valid 020055Z - 020230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 60
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will continue to pose mainly a
marginal hail threat the next few hours, with a gradual weakening
trend expected through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Several clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are
ongoing this evening across IA. Some of these storms are ongoing in
isentropic ascent over the cold front, mainly from northwest into
north-central IA. Steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep shear
is sufficient such that this elevated convection may produce some
marginally severe hail. South of the front across the warm sector,
weakening of convection is expected over the next few hours as the
boundary layer continues to stabilize with loss of daytime heating.
This gradual weakening trend has been noted in regional 7km and 9km
CAPPI, and is expected to continue. As a result, any damaging wind
threat should quickly diminish, but some marginal hail threat could
still persist for another few hours.

..Leitman.. 05/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 43609038 41179246 41199570 42379548 43279506 43739392
43989295 44059256 43979118 43929068 43609038



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ACUS11 KWNS 130315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130314
LAZ000-TXZ000-130545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019

Areas affected...Southeast TX...Far Southwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 130314Z - 130545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible within a few storms across
southeast TX and far southwest LA over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals a stalled boundary
extending from just south of LCH west-northwestward to just south of
IAH and then northwestward back toward AUS. Warm-air advection into
this boundary has yield persistent attempts at deep convection
across Harris and Liberty counties in southeast TX. Thus far,
updrafts produced by these attempts have not survived as mid-level
dry air (sampled well by the 00Z LCH sounding) resulted in too much
dry air entrainment. However, continued convective attempts are
expected to moisten this dry layer, with more sustained updrafts
possibly developing. Strong deep-layer shear supports the potential
for supercells with any more persistent/developed updrafts. Given
the initially and predominantly elevated character of these storms,
hail is the primary severe threat.

There is some potential for one or two of these storms to eventually
become surface based, which would lead to higher potential for
damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a tornado. However, this
scenario is fairly uncertain given the time-of-day, anticipated
storm motion, and stationary character of the boundary. Regardless,
convective trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 04/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON 29869589 30349567 31009451 31159319 30219302 29809443
29339532 29869589



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