1. Forum
  2. Fidonet Message
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1431

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, September 06, 2018 16:10:08
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1536250212-46358-3938
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS11 KWNS 061610
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061609
    MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-061845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1431
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1109 AM CDT Thu Sep 06 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern New York...New England

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 061609Z - 061845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage threat will likely continue as
    cells gradually increase in coverage from eastern New York eastward
    into south-central New England. The wind damage threat should remain
    isolated and weather watch issuance appears unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front
    extending from the coast of Maine (south of Bangor)
    west-southwestward into south-central New Hampshire, southern
    Vermont and eastern New York. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front
    are near 70 F and surface temperatures have warmed into the mid to
    upper 80s F. In response, moderate instability is already in place
    ahead of the front with MLCAPE values estimated by the RAP in the
    1500 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs at Gray, ME
    and Albany, NY show 0-6 km shear of 25 to 30 kt. This combined with
    steepening low-level lapse rates will be enough for marginally
    severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells. This potential
    should gradually move into southern New England and southeastern New
    York as the front continues to advance southeastward over the next
    few hours.

    ..Broyles/Guyer.. 09/06/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

    LAT...LON 43936942 43257030 42847055 42257107 42097176 42117280
    42167374 42557456 43127447 43527367 43717266 44037078
    44266976 44136947 43936942



    ------------=_1536250212-46358-3938
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1536250212-46358-3938--

    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)