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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0309

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 02, 2018 00:25:30
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 020025
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020024
    IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-020230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0309
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0724 PM CDT Tue May 01 2018

    Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kansas...Southeast
    Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Far Northwest Missouri

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 59...

    Valid 020024Z - 020230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 59 continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat with potential for tornadoes, wind damage
    and large hail, will continue over the next few hours across parts
    of east-central Kansas, southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. A new
    weather watch downstream into parts of eastern Kansas, northwest
    Missouri and far southern Iowa will need to be considered as the 03Z
    expiration of tornado watch 59 approaches.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a corridor of widely
    spaced discrete supercells from south of Lincoln, NE
    south-southwestward into central Kansas to near the Oklahoma state
    line southeast of Dodge City, KS. The airmass ahead of the storms is
    moderately unstable with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s
    F. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear
    in the 45 to 55 kt range as evidenced by the Wichita, KS and
    Hastings, NE WSR-88D VWPs, will be favorable for supercells with
    large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
    possible with the more intense supercells over the next hour or two
    but this threat should diminish later this evening. The RAP is also
    analyzing a 45 to 55 kt low-level jet across the eastern part of the
    tornado watch. As this feature continues to increase, a tornado
    threat will be maintained through mid evening. A strong tornado or
    two will be possible across north-central Kansas where low-level
    shear appears to be maximized. Wind damage will also be likely with
    supercells and bowing line segments. The severe threat could affect
    the far eastern part of the tornado watch across eastern Kansas in
    the 10 to 11 pm CDT timeframe where a new weather watch may be
    considered later this evening.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 05/02/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

    LAT...LON 37859687 37349727 37129798 37119904 37309928 37599923
    38099900 39359846 39879813 40819765 41199731 41699637
    41799525 41589487 41179456 40729460 39459569 38529655
    37859687



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, April 12, 2019 20:46:13
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 122046
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122045
    MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-122245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0309
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0345 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019

    Areas affected...Southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 122045Z - 122245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development may be accompanied by
    some risk for severe hail late this afternoon, with a small
    increasingly organized thunderstorm cluster possibly evolving by
    early evening, while spreading northeastward across the lower
    Mississippi Valley.

    DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development is underway to the
    immediate cool side of a stalling surface frontal zone. Activity is
    likely being supported by lift associated with weak low-level warm
    advection, and inflow of seasonably moist air with CAPE up to 1500
    J/kg.

    Although low-level wind fields are generally weak, strong deep layer
    shear beneath 50-60+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow may support
    rotating updrafts initially capable of supporting severe severe
    hail, before forcing for ascent perhaps contributes to the upscale
    growth of a small organizing convective cluster. It might not be
    out of the question that this could eventually be accompanied by
    some risk for a few strong surface gusts as activity tends to
    develop northeastward along the frontal zone through early evening.

    ..Kerr/Grams.. 04/12/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31039362 31839196 32119096 32129021 31368971 30749124
    30179246 30119372 31039362



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