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ACUS11 KWNS 012207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012207
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-012330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0308
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Tue May 01 2018

Areas affected...far eastern portions of the OK/TX Panhandles into
northwest OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 012207Z - 012330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Conditional threat of severe storms will exist this
evening across far eastern portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. If
storms develop, all severe hazards will be possible. Area being
monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A moderately unstable airmass resides over western OK
early this evening, where surface dewpoints from the mid 50s to low
60s beneath midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.5 deg C/km were
present. A surface dryline was draped across the eastern OK/TX
Panhandles, with only modest confluence along this feature due to
somewhat veered low level flow across far western OK. A better
defined confluence axis exists further east over west-central OK
along the western edge of higher dewpoints, but displaced from the
dryline and on the margins of a stronger midlevel cap per 19z RAOB
from OUN. Given this mismatch in surface features, and stronger
forcing for ascent focused further north across the central Plains,
greater uncertainty in convective initiation and evolution exists
across the MCD area.

Over the last 30 minutes or so, a cell has been noted on radar over
Lipscomb County TX. Should this cell become rooted in the boundary
layer, a severe threat will unfold as the storm tracks
east-northeast toward Tornado Watch 59 across central KS. Any storms
that can develop further south and track across northwest OK would
pose a severe threat with all hazards possible given steep lapse
rates, strong deep layer shear favoring supercells and an increasing
low level jet this evening. Convective trends will be monitored for
possible watch issuance.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 05/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 37009824 36309835 35809847 35529875 35389908 35349951
35389990 35460021 35700035 36140042 36560034 37030026
37059978 37009824



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ACUS11 KWNS 121735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121734
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-121930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0308
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019

Areas affected...Parts of the central Carolinas into south central
Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121734Z - 121930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An environment at least marginally conducive to a few
thunderstorms capable of producing localized, potentially damaging
surface gusts may continue to evolve across the piedmont of North
Carolina and adjacent areas through 4-5 PM EDT. Although the need
for a watch is not anticipated, trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms appear to be initiating along a
confluence zone within the western periphery of prominent low-level
ridging now centered off the Atlantic Coast. This appears focused
near a 20-30 kt southerly 850 mb jet, in the presence of weak
capping, aided by daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary
layer (mid/upper 60s+ surface dew points).

Between now and 20-21Z, 30-35+ kt south-southwesterly deep layer
mean flow will support a northeastward progression of storms across
and northeast of the North Carolina piedmont vicinity. As
mixed-layer CAPE increases in excess of 1000 J/kg, and low-level
lapse rates continue to steepen with additional insolation,
potential for downbursts accompanied by localized damaging surface
gusts may slowly increase through mid to late afternoon.

..Kerr/Grams.. 04/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 35498030 36268016 36937913 36587880 35917865 34467935
34047962 33818017 34858040 35498030



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