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ACUS11 KWNS 012200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012200
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-020000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0307
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Tue May 01 2018

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kansas...Southeast
Nebraska...Southwest Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 59...

Valid 012200Z - 020000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 59 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat across southeastern Nebraska and
north-central Kansas is expected to increase over the next couple of
hours. Large hail and wind damage will be likely with the stronger
storms as the activity move eastward across tornado watch 59 through
early evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving southeastward across south-central Nebraska and northwest Kansas. A
dryline extends southward from the front across west-central Kansas.
A narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture is present ahead
of the dryline from north-central Oklahoma into north-central Kansas
where surface dewpoints are generally in the lower to mid 60s F.
This combined with surface heating has resulted in moderate
instability with the RAP showing MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg.

Radar imagery shows a line of semi-discrete storms ongoing along the
western edge of moderate instability from near Hastings, NE to just
east of Dodge City, KS. The cells within the line will continue to
move eastward into stronger instability and should gradually
intensify. Due to the instability, steep mid-level lapse rates of
8.5 to 9.0 C/km and strong deep-layer shear evident on the Hastings
WSR-88D VWP, hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible with the stronger supercells. In addition, a 40 to 50 kt
low-level jet is forecast to rapidly strengthen across central and
eastern Kansas into southeast Nebraska early this evening. For this
reason, low-level shear will become increasingly favorable for
tornadoes. 0-3 km storm-relative helicities are forecast to increase
into the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range suggesting that a strong tornado or
two will be possible as well.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 05/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 40079869 39019922 38309965 37739991 37159894 37169801
37339705 38269635 39249613 40799471 41549476 41449676
40079869



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ACUS11 KWNS 121119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121118
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-121315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0307
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019

Areas affected...far southeastern Indiana...northern Kentucky...and southwestern into central Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121118Z - 121315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and small hail are possible with the
strongest storms as they travel north-northeastward across the
discussion area. A WW issuance is unlikely at this time, though
Marginal severe wind probabilities are forthcoming in the 13Z
convective outlook.

DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually increased over the past hour
across western and southern portions of the discussion area. One
storm along the front in north-central Kentucky (SDF) has produced a
51-knot wind gust the last hour. Instability is meager (generally
around 250 J/kg MUCAPE maximum based on mesoanalyses), but forcing
for ascent associated with a mid-level vortmax centered over
Illinois and low-level convergence along and ahead of the front were
overcoming the weak instability. With deep, lightning-producing
convection occurring in a strongly sheared environment with 60-80 kt
mid-level flow, isolated severe wind gusts may continue over the
next two to three hours. The Cincinnati Metro area may experience a
few of these gusts over the next hour or so.

Some weak rotation was noted in cells out ahead of the
linear/frontal convection over central Kentucky, which isn't
surprising given strong low-level shear in these areas. While a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out here, this threat should be
marginal at best over the next few hours as well.

Given overall convective trends, a WW issuance is not currently
anticipated. However, portions of Ohio and northeastern Kentucky
will likely be upgraded to 5%/Marginal severe wind probabilities in
the upcoming 13Z convective outlook.

..Cook/Edwards.. 04/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON 39928502 40118477 40408436 40528375 40398307 40158281
39838273 39308282 38718326 38528346 38248383 38098406
37918445 37748483 37818538 37918568 38288584 38808565
39208545 39928502



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