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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1427

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, September 05, 2018 02:07:59
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    ACUS11 KWNS 050207
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050207
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-050330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1427
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0907 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018

    Areas affected...Central WI to extreme northeast IA and southeast MN

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 368...

    Valid 050207Z - 050330Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 368 continues.

    SUMMARY...A tornado threat continues across central Wisconsin, and
    into extreme northeast Iowa, and extreme southeast Minnesota for the
    next 1-2 hours (until 10-11 PM CDT).

    DISCUSSION...Trends in radar imagery across western and central WI
    since 00Z showed a couple persistent/long-lived rotational couplets
    that have tracked in vicinity of the surface boundary, which extends
    from north-central IA through extreme southeast MN into WI between
    KONA and KLSE, then into Marathon County, WI. Although surface
    temperatures are cooling with the loss of daytime heating, the
    presence of high dew points is limiting the increase in
    surface-based inhibition near the surface boundary per objective
    analyses. This is sustaining moderate instability across the valid
    portion of the watch. The expected strengthening of southerly
    low-level winds has resulted in an increase in effective SRH (around
    200 m2/s2), especially in vicinity of the surface boundary in WI,
    with the ARX VAD at 0130Z showing 0-3 km SRH of 267 m2/s2. These
    factors favor a continued tornado threat until 03Z or possibly 04Z.
    Given time of day, surface-based inhibition should become
    sufficiently strong to weaken any ongoing storms after around
    03-04Z.

    ..Peters.. 09/05/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 42949209 43849238 44249165 44829156 45399057 45379010
    45098923 44248923 44249003 43599028 43139116 42679206
    42949209



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