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ACUS11 KWNS 042328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042328
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-050130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1426
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018

Areas affected...North-central IA...southeast MN...and western and
central WI

Concerning...Tornado Watch 368...

Valid 042328Z - 050130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 368 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe-weather threat, including the potential for a
couple of tornadoes and strong/damaging winds, persists this evening
from north-central Iowa through southeast Minnesota to central
Wisconsin. A small spatial extension may be needed on the eastern
side of WW 368. Meanwhile western counties in this watch can be
canceled early, as a north-south band of storms advances northeast.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery indicated a shortwave trough
tracking northeast through central IA early this evening. Forcing
for ascent with this trough will continue to support thunderstorm
development across northern IA through southeast MN into central WI,
where the environment remains moderately unstable and sufficiently
sheared (effective bulk shear 35-50 kt). Weak midlevel lapse rates
will continue to limit the threat for severe hail. A further
strengthening of south-southwesterly low-level winds in response to
weak height falls across the Upper Mississippi Valley will enhance
low-level shear within a very moist environment for a continued
tornado threat this evening. These factors also exist east of WW
368, at least a tier of counties, and they may need to be added to
this watch.

..Peters.. 09/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON 41869411 42709441 43619406 44109321 44609213 45029142
45379026 45178935 45028869 44668858 44328879 44028931
43629023 43159126 43049193 42709230 42309271 41869330
41579348 41529389 41869411



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