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ACUS11 KWNS 041907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041906
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-042130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1424
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018

Areas affected...Iowa...Southeast Minnesota...Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 041906Z - 042130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat will become likely this afternoon as cells
gradually intensify and expand in coverage from western Iowa
northeastward into central Wisconsin. Wind damage will be the
primary threat although a tornado or two can not be ruled out if a
supercell can develop. Weather watch issuance may be needed across
the region this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass in
place across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley where surface
dewpoints are in the lower 70s F. A large area of rain is located
from eastern Nebraska northward into southwest Minnesota. Surface
temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 80s F to the east of
this rain shield. In response, a corridor of moderate instability
has developed across much of north-central Iowa northeastward into south-central Wisconsin where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the
1500 to 2500 J/kg range. This corridor of moderate instability is
aligned with a belt of stronger mid-level flow where the RAP is
showing 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 kt range (sampled by the La
Crosse, WI WSR-88D VWP). This environment will support a severe
threat as cells increase in coverage over the next few hours.
Although most of the storms will remain multicellular with a
potential for wind damage, a supercell will be possible. An isolated
tornado threat may develop with any supercell that can organize late
this afternoon as low-level shear becomes more favorable.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 09/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 44899210 45279083 45418941 45288876 44908834 44378844
44098935 43879010 43069239 42089378 41539465 41619517
41779543 42209562 42839549 44069402 44899210



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