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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1423

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, September 04, 2018 18:51:27
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    ACUS11 KWNS 041851
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041851
    FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-042115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1423
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0151 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018

    Areas affected...Florida Panhandle...into far southern Mississippi
    and south Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 041851Z - 042115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A brief tropical cyclone tornado or two will be possible
    as Tropical Storm Gordon approaches the Gulf Coast. While not
    immediately likely, convective trends are being monitored for a
    Tornado Watch should a greater threat materialize.

    DISCUSSION...A rain shield along the northern periphery of Tropical
    Storm Gordon has inhibited stronger surface heating and associated
    buoyancy (including low-level CAPE, with values exceeding 100-150
    J/kg in some spots) across portions of the Florida, Alabama, and
    Mississippi Panhandle areas. Still, as deeper ambient moisture
    continues to advect onshore, and low-level kinematic fields
    strengthen (as Gordon becomes a minimal Hurricane), an uptick in
    cellular organization, with transient low-level rotation and
    possibly brief tornadoes may be possible later this afternoon and
    evening. Discrete storms offshore within the right-front quadrant of
    Gordon have already shown signs of occasional, transient low-level
    rotation and this trend is expected to continue as Gordon moves
    ashore.

    Given the anticipated isolated nature of the threat, trends will
    continue to be monitored before the issuance of a Tornado Watch is
    considered.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/04/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30248853 30838924 31298924 31408865 31178664 30298474
    30118475 29918491 29838540 30248853



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