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ACUS11 KWNS 011901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011901
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-012100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0305
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CDT Tue May 01 2018

Areas affected...parts of northeast Colorado and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 011901Z - 012100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop across the front-range region of northeast Colorado and into adjacent parts of
southeast Wyoming. Though marginal hail and/or gusty winds may
occur with the strongest cells, a WW is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated cells developing from
southeast Wyoming southward along the Front Range to the Palmer
Divide, within a region of modest low-topped CAPE atop a rather dry
mixed layer. While the lack of greater moisture/CAPE will limit
cell intensity -- and thus overall severe risk -- the dry sub-cloud
layer, steep lapse rates, and deep-layer wind field supportive of
organized updrafts all suggest low-end risk for marginal hail and/or
gusty winds with stronger cells. Storms should continue to increase
this afternoon, possibly merging into clusters with time, but expect
a diurnal decrease in convective intensity by early evening as the
boundary layer begins to cool.

..Goss/Wendt/Grams.. 05/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41350523 41390478 41290396 41420339 41190287 40330287
39510355 39070458 39200494 39920549 41380571 41350523



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ACUS11 KWNS 112049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112048
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0305
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern SD...central/eastern
ND...and northern/central MN

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 112048Z - 120245Z

SUMMARY...A band of heavy snow, with rates of 1 inch per hour or
greater, will develop north-northeastward this afternoon and
evening. Localized blizzard conditions may also occur.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a band of heavy snow extending from northeastern SD into parts of south-central/eastern ND and central
MN at 2045Z. As the strong cyclone over the central Plains develops northeastward, this heavy snow band will shift north-northeastward
in tandem with pronounced low-level frontogenetical forcing.
Snowfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour will be common, with
locally higher rates to around 2 inches per hour possible within the
strongest portions of the band. Heavy snow development may be
delayed until 23-00Z or later across parts of northern MN where a
residual dry low-level airmass will first need to saturate. A 989 mb
surface low near the NE/IA border is fostering an enhanced surface
pressure gradient across much of the eastern Dakotas into western
MN, and localized blizzard conditions should continue where wind
gusts of 35-40 kt lower visibilities to 1/4 of a mile or less.

..Gleason.. 04/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 46409378 46279474 46169595 45759657 45329687 44909704
44229806 44239874 44589926 45259966 46159971 46919944
47369882 47899728 48469584 48719437 48699306 48519241
48229160 48289087 47998941 47728998 47489075 47039142
46689226 46409378



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