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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1422

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, September 04, 2018 03:40:59
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    ACUS11 KWNS 040340
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040340
    NDZ000-040515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1422
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1040 PM CDT Mon Sep 03 2018

    Areas affected...Southwest to central ND

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366...

    Valid 040340Z - 040515Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms remain possible across the valid
    parts of WW 366.

    DISCUSSION...Trends during the mid-late evening in objective
    analyses indicated strengthening surface-based inhibition across
    western and central ND, with this trend being seen in radar imagery
    by a fairly significant reduction in the number of stronger/
    sustained storms. In addition to the increase in inhibition,
    instability is weakening. However, 7-km and 9-km CAPPI showed
    storms being sustained as they moved east across the southern
    portion of WW 366 (Stark, Dunn, and Mercer Counties). Despite the
    negative factors for continued surface-based storms, this latter
    activity is located within an area of increased low-level warm
    advection, which should persist into the overnight across southwest
    to south-central ND. The presence of steep midlevel lapse rates per
    00Z BIS sounding and moderate elevated instability suggests isolated
    stronger storms could produce large hail. Otherwise, if the overall
    downturn in coverage of strong to severe storms continues, then WW
    366 could be canceled early.

    ..Peters.. 09/04/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...

    LAT...LON 46770303 49020196 48960012 47860035 46710099 46120166
    45980263 46030315 46770303



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