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ACUS11 KWNS 032201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032200
NDZ000-MTZ000-032330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1419
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Areas affected...Western ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 032200Z - 032330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will be coordinated soon.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop and become severe into this
evening across western North Dakota, with large hail and
strong/damaging winds the primary severe threats.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery indicated an increase in cumulus/towering cumulus across western ND and southeast MT, where
surface streamlines show confluent flow located ahead of a more
defined wind shift/cold front advancing east through central MT.
The developing cumulus is within the warm sector which has moistened
through the day and experienced strong diabatic heating beneath
steep midlevel lapse rates contributing to moderate instability
(MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg). Strengthening effective bulk shear
will support organized storms including supercells.

..Peters/Thompson.. 09/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 46410409 47330405 48930346 48980158 48870107 47320120
46040208 45970392 46410409



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