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ACUS11 KWNS 011810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011810
NEZ000-KSZ000-012045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0304
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CDT Tue May 01 2018

Areas affected...Central KS into southeast NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 011810Z - 012045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...One or two tornado watches will be needed by mid-afternoon
(20-21Z) across central Kansas into southeast Nebraska.

DISCUSSION...Surface mesoanalyses this afternoon showed an area of
low pressure located in northwest KS, while the equatorward-trailing
dryline was continuing to shift east through southwest KS. DDC
radar imagery showed this boundary located between KGCK and KDDC at
1740Z and into central portions of the OK and TX Panhandles.
Clearing skies per visible satellite imagery have allowed for
stronger surface heating across the warm sector where the
environment continues to moisten per southerly low-level winds.
These changes in boundary-layer thermodynamics (reduction in
inhibition) have allowed cumulus clouds to develop along the KS
portion of the dryline into adjacent part of the OK Panhandle, as
the environment further destabilizes (mixed-layer CAPE is already up
to 2500 J/kg).

Deeper moist convection is expected by 20-21Z along the KS dryline
as stronger ascent within the exit region of southwesterly mid- and
upper-level jets shift into the central Plains this afternoon and
evening. Trends in the operational HRRR continue to suggest storm
development along the KS portion of the dryline by 21Z, with some
potential for initiation by around 20Z. Further low-level moistening
and increasing vertically veering winds will support supercell
development with an attendant threat for all severe hazards.
Initial storms will be capable of producing very large hail, while a
tornado threat (some strong) will increase, given a strengthening
southerly low-level jet resulting in increased hodograph curvature
this evening.

..Peters/Grams.. 05/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 37349992 38149990 39429952 40089898 41169757 41449659
41379612 40879586 40329599 39289672 38319768 37539859
37229942 37179971 37349992



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ACUS11 KWNS 112014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112013
ILZ000-IAZ000-112115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0304
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019

Areas affected...Parts of northern and central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 112013Z - 112115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...At least some increase in severe weather potential is
expected with developing thunderstorm activity across parts of
northern Illinois by the 4-6 PM CDT time frame. It is possible that
this threat may remain low enough that a watch is not needed, but
trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Near/just ahead of the lower/mid tropospheric cold
front, forcing for ascent appears to be contributing to the ongoing
increase in thunderstorm activity across northwestern Illinois into southwestern Wisconsin. This activity is largely rooted above a
near-surface stable layer to the north of the surface warm front,
with relatively warm mid-levels and weak mid/high level lapse rates
allowing for only weak CAPE.

The band of convection is expected to gradually spread eastward
during the few hours, with southward development into the warm
sector of the surface cyclone also possible by 21-23Z. Even within
the warm sector, relatively low surface dew points across parts of
eastern Missouri into west central Illinois are currently resulting
in negligible boundary layer CAPE. However, modest low-level
moisture (reflected by mid 50s+ surface dew points) appears to be
returning northward/northwestward in a corridor to the
east/northeast through north of Springfield, into the vicinity of
the warm front.

A combination of at least weak boundary-layer destabilization along
the warm front, coupled with increasing lift ahead of the occluding
surface cyclone triple point (and associated eastward advancing band
of mid-level forcing for ascent), may allow for at least isolated boundary-layer based storm development. This seems most likely
north/northeast of the Peoria vicinity, and may include one or two
supercells accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and
localized strong surface gusts. Although low-level thermodynamic
profiles appear rather marginal, given the synoptic environment, and
large low-level hodographs near/beneath 50+ kt southerly 850 mb
flow, an isolated tornado may not be out of the question.

..Kerr/Hart.. 04/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41629041 42259012 42138890 40368893 39938990 40579038
41629041



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