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ACUS11 KWNS 031735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031734
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-031930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1417
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Areas affected...Far Northeast NY...Northern NH...Northern
VT...Northwest ME

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031734Z - 031930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated, with the
chance for a few of these storms to produce isolated hail and/or
damaging wind gusts. Limited severe threat is expected to preclude
the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Airmass across the region continues to destabilize
under diurnal heating and ample low-level moisture (i.e. 100-mb mean
mixing ratios above 14 g/kg). Mid-level lapse rates are generally
poor but the airmass is still expected to become moderately unstable
(i.e. MLCAPE around 1000/1500 J/kg) as temperatures climb into the
mid to upper 80s (perhaps some low 90s) and dewpoints remain in the
70s.

Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase as modest ascent along
the southern periphery of the stronger flow aloft grazes the area. Additionally, lift will be augmented by a low-amplitude, fast-moving
shortwave trough moving across southern Quebec. Leading edge of this
forcing for ascent has contributed to the development of
thunderstorms from southern Quebec southwestward through the Finger
Lakes region of NY. A few more organized and persistent
thunderstorms (currently located about 30 to 45 miles
north-northeast of EFK) will likely move into portions of northern
VT and NH within the next hour or so. These storms, as well as any
others that develop within this region, will experience slightly
stronger vertical shear than those farther south across NY. As such,
somewhat higher probabilities exist for a few strong to severe
storms capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts. Even so, the
expectation is for any severe threat to remain too isolated to merit
watch issuance.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 09/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON 45327129 46447011 45946910 44407020 43937276 44877412
45097197 45327129



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