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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1413

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, September 02, 2018 20:48:20
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 022048
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022047
    ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-022245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1413
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0347 PM CDT Sun Sep 02 2018

    Areas affected...Southern WI...Far Northern IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 022047Z - 022245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible this
    afternoon. A watch is not currently anticipated but convective
    trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase across
    the region as outflow from antecedent storms continues to push
    southeastward. This lift will be augmented by modest large scale
    forcing for ascent attendant to a shortwave trough progressing
    through southwesterly flow aloft into the area. Mid-level lapse
    rates are not particularly steep but a moderate to strongly unstable
    airmass has still developed, largely a result of ample low-level
    moisture. The low to mid-level flow across the region is largely
    unidirectional but enough speed shear exists to support a few more
    organized storms. Marginally severe hail is possible within the
    stronger, more persistent updrafts. Storm interactions may also
    result in brief updrafts strong enough to produce some hail. A
    damaging wind gusts or two is also possible as a result of
    water-loaded downdrafts. Even so, overall severe coverage is
    expected to remain rather isolated, leading to lower watch
    probabilities.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 09/02/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

    LAT...LON 43189073 43598985 43888839 43408781 43008772 42158793
    42108997 42499078 43189073



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