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ACUS11 KWNS 022021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022020
NEZ000-KSZ000-022215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1412
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Areas affected...Portions of west-central Kansas...north-central Kansas...portions of northeast Kansas...far southern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 022020Z - 022215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms developing near Hays, KS is expected
to eventually congeal into a linear segment. Initial development
that can remain discrete will pose a threat for severe hail and
perhaps a tornado. With time, as storm coverage increases and cold
pools congeal, the primary threat will become severe wind gusts.
Convective trends will be monitored for possible WW.

DISCUSSION...A storm or two has recently initiated out of a cluster
of agitated cumulus on visible satellite imagery near Hays, KS.
Given the upstream ascent, evidenced by cirrus moving in from the
southwest on visible satellite, this activity should continue to
increase over the next few hours. Modest lapse rates near 6-6.5 C/km
and effective deep-layer shear of 35-45 kts will support storm
organization with isolated severe hail possible. A subtle
differential heating boundary/wind shift draped across northern
Kansas has enhanced the low-level hodograph curvature to a degree,
if a storm can remain discrete and interact with this boundary, a
tornado cannot be ruled out. However, as storm coverage increases,
as depicted in much of the CAM guidance, storm interactions and
upscale growth should limit tornado and hail potential. With time,
an east/northeastward propagating linear segment will pose primarily
a severe wind gust threat. Trends in convective mode/intensity will
be monitored for possible WW issuance.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 09/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 39089980 39599887 40159695 40039579 39379571 38569743
38279856 38109955 38300011 38770019 39089980



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