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ACUS11 KWNS 011524
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011524
IAZ000-MOZ000-011800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0303
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CDT Tue May 01 2018

Areas affected...Far northwest MO into south-central IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 011524Z - 011800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter will be
possible into the early afternoon from far northwest Missouri into south-central Iowa. Low expected coverage of a severe hail threat
precludes the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Mid-late morning trends in mosaic radar imagery
indicated some increase in thunderstorm development within the
west/southwest extent of a cluster of convection/embedded storms
spreading to the east-northeast across northern MO into central IA.
12Z observed sounding analysis indicated this activity is elevated
near and north of a warm front draped to the southeast across
northern MO. A weakening, though still modest, southwesterly
low-level jet up to 45 kt is supporting low-level warm advection
into the western extent of aforementioned MO/IA cluster of storms.
Ascent within the nose of this jet combined with the entrance region
of a 55-kt 500-mb jet extending from eastern NE into the upper
Mississippi Valley will prove favorable in supporting additional
storms into the early afternoon, before these features weaken/depart
this region.

MRMS MESH data indicated a few storms with possible hail approaching
1 inch between 1430-15Z. Although trends have diminished since 15Z,
colder 500-mb temperatures at the TOP 12Z sounding spreading
northeast into the early afternoon combined with effective bulk
shear for storm organization suggest hail could approach 1 inch
through 18-19Z.

..Peters/Grams.. 05/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 41609402 41909288 41659208 40509263 40019370 39979440
40099489 40639477 41609402



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ACUS11 KWNS 111439
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111438
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-112045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0303
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0938 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern SD...southeastern
ND...and western/central MN

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 111438Z - 112045Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow, with rates of 1 inch per hour, and
strong/gusty winds will combine to create localized blizzard
conditions through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A band of moderate to heavy snow with rates around 1
inch per hour is ongoing across parts of central/eastern SD into
western MN in association with pronounced frontogenesis in the
850-700 mb layer on the northern flank of a deep cyclone over NE/KS.
Locally higher snowfall rates to around 2 inches per hour will be
possible within strongest elements of the band. This deformation
band is expected to shift northeastward into southeastern ND and
parts of western/central MN through this afternoon in tandem with
the progression of the mid/upper-level system. A strong surface
pressure gradient exists across the northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest, with a 989 mb low located near Omaha, NE at 1430Z.
East-northeasterly surface winds gusting to 35-40 kt are decreasing visibilities to around 1/4 of a mile and creating localized blizzard
conditions across parts of this region. A pocket of weak elevated
instability (MUCAPE up to 500 J/kg) is present across this region,
and scattered thunderstorms likely rooted above 700 mb should be
capable of producing some sleet and perhaps even some small hail.

..Gleason.. 04/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 43709876 44029935 44709973 45389983 46229944 46669881
46979817 47289703 47439548 47219423 46619356 45959351
45329379 45119439 44919550 44619635 44259694 43899789
43709876



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