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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1410

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, September 02, 2018 05:51:46
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 020551
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020551
    SDZ000-NDZ000-020815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1410
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1251 AM CDT Sun Sep 02 2018

    Areas affected...Northern SD...Southern ND

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 020551Z - 020815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail will be possible overnight. Watch
    issuance is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually been increasing in coverage
    and intensity across northern SD and southern ND tonight, within a
    low-level warm advection regime. Continued moistening below 700 mb
    combined with steep lapse rates aloft is resulting in
    moderate-to-strong elevated buoyancy, with MUCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg
    per recent mesoanalyses. Effective shear of 30-40 kt and relatively
    strong anvil-level flow will support the potential for hail
    production with the strongest cells, though the anticipated dominant
    cluster mode will mitigate the hail threat to some extent. While
    damaging wind cannot entirely be ruled out with any upscale-growing
    line segments, substantial SBCINH will work against any strong gusts
    reaching the surface. Overall, the coverage of the threat is
    expected to remain too isolated for watch issuance.

    ..Dean/Edwards.. 09/02/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

    LAT...LON 44690181 45740119 46299951 46549757 46279696 45529696
    44929746 44749835 44589995 44620143 44690181



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