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ACUS11 KWNS 012338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012338
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-020145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Areas affected...Northern KS and southeastern NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363...

Valid 012338Z - 020145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail and strong, damaging wind gusts remain severe
threats as storms continue to increase in coverage and intensity
across north-central Kansas, and develop/track to the northeast into
southeast Nebraska this evening.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery since 2130Z showed a
cluster of intense storms is tracking to the northeast across
north-central KS, with this cluster centered on Osborne/western
Mitchell Counties at 2325Z. Meanwhile, additional strong/intense
cells have developed immediately downstream into Jewell County near
the surface boundary which extends from the ongoing cluster into
southeast NE. Further strengthening of a southerly low-level jet
with increasing warm advection this evening into northern KS and
eventually southeast NE will allow for continued thunderstorm
development. This combined with the ongoing larger storm cluster
tracking into stronger instability with east-northeast extent
suggests similar storm intensities can be expected with large hail
and damaging winds the primary threats. If a cold pool becomes
established with the north-central KS cluster, then damaging winds
will become the primary threat, as the low-level jet veers to
southwesterly into southeast NE.

Additional strong to severe storms have also formed along the
southwest flank/outflow boundary of the initial cluster of storms,
mainly in vicinity of Ellis County where the environment remained
unstable and sufficiently sheared. Until these latter storms
weaken, the southwest portion of WW 363 should not be canceled.

..Peters.. 09/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 38599961 38999933 39229906 39699896 40119861 40549810
41099683 41399674 41389599 40299553 40019606 39599626
39279736 39169780 38879794 38659856 38599961



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