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ACUS11 KWNS 012238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012237
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-020030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0537 PM CDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Areas affected...Northeast CO...southern NE Panhandle to extreme
southwest NE...and extreme northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 012237Z - 020030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with
the strongest storms developing and moving across northeast Colorado
and the southern Nebraska Panhandle toward portions of southwest
Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Trends in late afternoon mosaic radar imagery showed a north-northeast to south-southwest oriented broken band of
thunderstorms moving to the east-northeast across northeast CO,
while additional storms were developing across the southern NE
Panhandle. Visible imagery indicated that earlier cloudiness has
spread northeast away from a narrow corridor of far northeast CO,
allowing for full sunshine immediately downstream of these storms,
with surface heating also persisting in advance of the NE Panhandle
storms. Meanwhile, east-southeasterly surface winds are advecting
higher dew points (mid-upper 50s F) into northeast CO beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates contributing to late afternoon destabilization
and weakening of surface-based inhibition.

Last several runs of the operational HRRR suggest a small complex of
storms will advance northeast across northeast CO and the southern
NE PANHANDLE into extreme southwest NE and the adjacent part of
northwest KS this evening. Water vapor imagery showed a
low-amplitude impulse tracking into northeast CO, and forcing for
ascent this feature should support additional storms spreading
northeast as suggested by the HRRR. Given relatively weak forcing
with the impulse and shorter duration of current diabatic heating,
limiting the erosion of inhibition, a watch is not expected.

..Peters/Thompson.. 09/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39800382 39850376 40240339 40530337 41150369 41360352
41630312 41700230 41590120 41410090 41160083 40830077
40290084 39880119 39700157 39520255 39600329 39530358
39800382



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