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ACUS11 KWNS 011945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011945
KSZ000-NEZ000-012145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1402
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Areas affected...Western/Central KS...South-Central NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 011945Z - 012145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Gradually increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated
with a resulting threat for a few instances of strong wind gusts
and/or large hail. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown increased vertical
development within the cluster of predominately mid-level cloudiness
moving northeastward through western KS. This cloudiness is most
likely tied to lift attendant to the shortwave trough moving into
the same area. This lift, coupled with convergence along a surface
trough and continued airmass destabilization (supported by diurnal
heating and moisture advection), is expected to result in increased thunderstorm coverage over the next hour or two. The development
early in this time frame will likely be elevated but eventual
surface-based development is anticipated.

Vertical shear is strong enough to support storm organization and
robust updrafts. High-based character to these thunderstorms will
favor the development of potentially strong downdrafts, which
appears to be the primary severe threat. Some large hail is also
possible within the more organized updrafts. Uncertainties regarding
severe coverage preclude high watch probabilities but convective
trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Grams.. 09/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 39150088 40190033 40679887 40229730 39059752 38499862
37920052 39150088



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