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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1400

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, September 01, 2018 05:53:44
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 010553
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010553
    MIZ000-010800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1400
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 01 2018

    Areas affected...Western UP of Michigan and Lake Superior

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 010553Z - 010800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A short-term threat for locally damaging wind and
    marginally severe hail continues.

    DISCUSSION...The fast-moving thunderstorm cluster currently
    approaching the western UP of MI has been maintaining its intensity
    within an environment characterized by moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500
    J/kg) and effective shear of 30-40 kt. A relatively uncapped airmass
    (for surface-based parcels) immediately downstream, characterized by
    where surface temps remain near 70 F, should help to maintain this
    cluster for the next 1-2 hours. Some potential remains for locally
    damaging wind gusts, especially across the Keweenaw Peninsula as the
    leading outflow approaches from Lake Superior. Sufficient
    instability/shear will also support some threat of marginally severe
    hail with the strongest cores.

    The wind/hail threat should diminish with time further east, as the thunderstorm cluster encounters cooler boundary-layer temperatures
    and stronger CINH. Given the relatively confined spatiotemporal
    nature of the threat, watch issuance is not anticipated.

    ..Dean/Edwards.. 09/01/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...

    LAT...LON 47248981 47518815 47378701 46248747 46148826 46288916
    46489000 46689019 47188994 47248981



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