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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1399

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, September 01, 2018 01:48:14
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    ACUS11 KWNS 010148
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010147
    IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-010345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1399
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0847 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

    Areas affected...southeast Nebraska into central Iowa and northern
    Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 010147Z - 010345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms capable of large hail are expected to
    develop this evening.

    DISCUSSION...An very unstable air mass currently resides along and
    west of a warm front roughly along the MO River. The 00Z OAX and TOP
    soundings both show MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, with MUCAPE of
    4000-5000 J/kg. In addition, low level shear near the warm front is
    strong, owing to large looping hodographs in a warm advection
    regime.

    Although the air mass is largely capped, a southwesterly low-level
    jet increasing to around 50 kt will maintain lift, while the
    presence of steep lapse rates aloft support strong updrafts capable
    of hail. Overall, convection may remain disorganized, but the amount
    of available instability will likely support large to damaging hail
    in some of the cells. Therefore, a watch cannot be ruled out this
    evening if storm trends suggest more than an isolated severe threat.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 09/01/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...

    LAT...LON 39649467 40019525 40159633 40419735 40859759 41389725
    41969637 42229572 42229461 41999385 41589315 40959266
    40359249 39849267 39589301 39479367 39649467



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