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ACUS11 KWNS 312042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312041
SDZ000-NEZ000-312245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1398
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

Areas affected...Central NE...Far South-Central SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 312041Z - 312245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms expected this afternoon.
Large hail and strong wind gusts possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows the development
of high-based cumulus along the cold front moving slowly
eastward/southeastward across the central Plains. Continued moisture convergence along frontal boundary amidst diurnal destabilization
may eventually result in enough erosion of the convective inhibition
to support thunderstorm initiation. RAP forecast soundings, modified
for current conditions, support this scenario. Steep mid-level lapse
rates support a moderate to strongly unstable airmass with MLCAPE
approaching 3000 J/kg. Even so, atmospheric profiles characterized
by shallow and relatively well-mixed low-level moisture beneath
fairly dry mid-level conditions suggest dry-air entrainment could
weaken what would otherwise be fairly robust updrafts. Vertical
shear profiles show a pronounced mid-level weakness in the flow,
which also suggests updrafts may struggle somewhat. This factors
indicate that storm coverage will likely remain isolated with
generally modest storm organization and longevity. Given the strong
instability and modest vertical shear, some hail is possible. Very
large hail cannot be completely ruled out, but the negative factors
listed above reduce confidence in its occurrence. High-based
character of these storms also suggests the potential for some
strong wind gusts, particularly as updrafts collapse.

..Mosier/Grams.. 08/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 42520019 43449928 43199861 41909904 41159975 40930089
41500143 42520019



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