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ACUS11 KWNS 301735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301734
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-301900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Thu Aug 30 2018

Areas affected...portions of WV and VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 301734Z - 301900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts are possible through the afternoon
hours across parts of WV and western/central VA. The threat will
remain isolated and unorganized, precluding watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed over the higher
terrain of WV and western VA early this afternoon. Convection should
continue to develop eastward across portions of western and central
VA where a very moist and strongly unstable airmass is present to
the south of a surface front. Widespread towering CU was noted in
current visible satellite imagery, indicating this favorable
environment. While instability is high, deep layer shear and
midlevel lapse rates are poor. This generally will result in
pulse-type convective cells and clusters. PW values greater than 1.5
inches and low level lapse rates between 7.5-8.5 C/km (as noted in
17z mesoanalysis) will aid in sporadic strong downburst winds. Given
a lack of more organized convection and the transient/short-lived
nature of the threat from any given cell, a watch is not expected,
though a damaging gust or two is possible through the afternoon
hours.

..Leitman/Dial.. 08/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...

LAT...LON 37828223 38228223 38618202 38838170 39058120 39237960
38967856 38877834 38207771 37707747 37367758 36977921
36628025 36728103 37118150 37528197 37828223



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