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ACUS11 KWNS 301321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301320
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-301515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1394
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0820 AM CDT Thu Aug 30 2018

Areas affected...portions of far southeast KS into northeast OK and
northwest AR into southwest and central MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 301320Z - 301515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of severe hail is possible this morning
with elevated convection. A damaging wind threat may evolve later
this morning or early afternoon and a watch may be needed at some
point in the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Convection continues to develop in the vicinity of
ongoing convective cluster across eastern KS and western MO. 12z
RAOB from SGF indicates modestly steep midlevel lapse rates around
7-7.5 C/km. Deep layer shear is rather weak with around 20-25 kt
effective shear noted on the SGF RAOB and in 12z mesoanalysis.
However, abundant instability exists across the region and elevated
convection has been producing bouts of severe hail. This likely will
continue sporadically this morning.

As the convective cluster continues to develop and track
east/southeast along a weak surface boundary evident in
east-southeasterly low level flow across central MO, a damaging wind
threat could develop later this morning into the afternoon as low
level inhibition weakens. Given the background weak shear
environment, a stronger cold pool will need to develop to drive the
development of a rear inflow jet and enhance the damaging wind
threat. This area will be monitored closely for possible watch
issuance within the next few hours.

..Leitman/Dial.. 08/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 38839426 38909389 38839328 38649242 38469206 38169194
37739191 37109211 36779244 36359312 36269339 36149393
36099458 36289520 36659548 37349571 37819577 37999551
38029499 38369440 38839426



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