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ACUS11 KWNS 010307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010307
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-010400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 PM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the TX/OK Panhandles and TX South
Plains.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 57...

Valid 010307Z - 010400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 57
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat over the remainder of the watch area
should diminish over the next 1-2 hours, and additional watch
issuance appears highly unlikely over the area tonight.

DISCUSSION...Surface mesoanalysis indicates that the dryline has
retreated west of the watch in wavy fashion, near a GUY-HRX-HOB
line. Additional development on that boundary is growing more
improbable with time as the nocturnal loss of heating/mixing weakens
lift and the near-surface layer stabilizes. An isolated cluster of strong-severe convection over the east-central TX Panhandle --
likely elevated above the surface with its inflow roots in the 40-45
kt LLJ -- may offer a severe-hail threat for another hour or two.
However, with strengthening MLCINH area-wide -- evident both in
modified RAOBs and in expansion of ducting-related lowest
beam-elevation radar clutter -- and the absence of substantial upper
support, the potential for organized severe is declining rapidly.

..Edwards.. 05/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33480051 33030271 34700196 36870125 37080093 36990006
35339988 33480051



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ACUS11 KWNS 110734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110734
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-111330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019

Areas affected...north central through northeast Nebraska...central
and eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 110734Z - 111330Z

SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy snow including blizzard
conditions with rates up to or locally exceeding 1 inch per hour are
expected to continue through the early morning from north central
Nebraska, central and eastern South Dakota into a portion of
southern Minnesota. A mix of freezing rain and sleet will likely
continue from northeast Nebraska into far southern Minnesota.

DISCUSSION...Early this morning, bands of mostly snow continue from
north- central NE into central and eastern SD and a portion of of
south- central and southwest MN. The activity is associated with
strong ageostrophic forcing within the exit region of an intense
(140+ kt) upper jet. This zone of strong upper forcing will advance
northward through the Northern Plains and upper MS Valley this
morning with attendant surface low moving from northeast KS to
southeast NE by 12Z. On the mesoscale, there appears to be a
vorticity maximum currently moving northward through eastern NE.
This feature will coincide with corridor of enhanced frontogenetic
forcing within deformation zone, supporting development of organized
snow bands from north central NE into central and eastern SD. In
addition the strong pressure gradient north of the low pressure
track will continue to promote wind gusts occasionally from 40-45 kt
creating blizzard conditions in this region.

Farther south from northeast NE into southern MN, a broad zone of
warm advection associated with a 60-70 kt low-level jet has resulted
in a melting layer aloft that should continue to advance slowly
north. In addition, steep lapse rates, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, and
strong isentropic ascent are supporting numerous thunderstorms. Some
of the heavy snow now occurring over southwest MN is convectively
enhanced. However, this precipitation should gradually change to
sleet and freezing rain as the melting layer develops north with
time.

..Dial.. 04/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 44199216 43659417 43049621 41989812 41710055 42400129
43690115 45099873 45529612 45249327 44739211 44199216



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